"Bolsonaro Isn’t Preparing for a Coup. He’s Preparing for a Revolution."

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This pro-Lula piece implicitly admits that Socialist votes alone would not have been enough to defeat Bolsonaro, not by a long shot - it was centrist and cuckservative votes that managed to barely carry the old PT apparatchik over the finishing line.

(In much the same way, in Peru, the daughter of Alberto Fujimori has been defeated, in three very closely contested elections, by the broad political front that relied on scaring enough people with the possibility of the return of right-wing dictatorship.)

Opinion: How Brazil’s democracy stepped back from the cliff

Lula’s victory provides useful lessons for those seeking to contain leaders with authoritarian ambitions

www.theglobeandmail.com

Aware of the fact that re-election tends to embolden populist candidates with an authoritarian rhetoric, countless Brazilian opposition figures put their egos aside over the past months and joined a remarkably broad coalition led by Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (”Lula”), including far-left politicians like Guilherme Boulos, environmentalists like Marina Silva, former bankers and fiscal hawks like Henrique Meirelles and centrists like Aloysio Nunes. Most remarkably, it also included numerous politicians with a long bitter rivalry with Mr. da Silva’s Workers Party (PT).

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This very broad tent has allowed the opposition to frame the election as a contest between democracy and autocracy, while also convincing many centrists that Mr. da Silva Lula will lead, if elected, a centrist government meant to overcome the extreme polarization that shaped the past four years. Rather than facing a fractured and ill-co-ordinated opposition, Mr. Bolsonaro was left largely isolated and has struggled to reach out to centrist voters, which explains why he ultimately lost his re-election bid.

 

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Bolsonaro Loses To Communist Lula In Brazil

Lula edges Bolsonaro by a point in Brazil’s presidential election

occidentaldissent.com

Bolsonaro Loses To Communist Lula In Brazil​

October 31, 2022

Hunter Wallace

I was shocked when Bolsonaro won in Brazil in 2018.

I was surprised again when he made it to the runoff with Lula when all the media polls had him losing by a landslide. In the end, Bolsonaro lost to Lula by less than 2 points. Bolsonaro’s party won a bunch of races down ballot. The outcome is Brazil’s version of the 2020 election in the United States.

Two quick observations:

1. The fact that Bolsonaro outperformed the polls and finished so strongly and that his party made gains ought to put to rest the “demographics is destiny” myth. Even with Brazil’s demographics, elections are still fiercely competitive. Bolsonarism isn’t going anywhere.

2. As with Trump and Trumpism, Bolsonaro and Bolsonarism will likely surge right back in the wake of Lula returning to power in Brazil. Something will come along and tip the balance of power.

Sure, it is a setback, but Lula is one of the most well known and popular figures in Brazil and he barely won. We seem to be entering an era of bitter, competitive, high turnout elections which swing back and forth.

Note: The liberal fantasy that Trump and Trumpism haven’t become a permanent feature of our politics will be exploded next week.

 

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A guide to Brazilian politics:

 

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José Serra e 4 ex-presidentes do PSDB declaram voto em Lula para presidente

Senador paulista também informou que, para governador de São Paulo, vai votar em Tarcísio de Freitas, candidato de Jair Bolsonaro no Estado

valor.globo.com

• Petr: This is what really did Bolsonaro in - enough PSDB cuckservatives swung against him. It was mostly older politicians, with no further future ahead of them, who endorsed Lula, just like it has been usually retiring GOP cucks who become open Never Trumpers.
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• Petr: Sao Paulo used to be the most important PSDB stronghold, and there Bolsonaro did not win this time with big enough margin (55 %, while it was 68 % back in 2018) to overcome Leftist votes from the northeast.
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• Petr: "Never Bolsonaro" was this year even much stronger in Brazil than Never Trump was in the US. Imagine if Dubya Bush had openly endorsed the Democratic candidate, instead of just sulking in silence.
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• Petr: It really was a big accomplishment for Jair to get 49,1 % of votes with such odds stacked against him.

 

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Brazil election: how Lula won the runoff, from São Paulo to the north-east

Bolsonaro gained support in deforested areas while municipalities with high Indigenous population voted overwhelmingly for Lula

www.theguardian.com

And here we can see the High and Low against the Middle phenomenon in action - Lula won the votes of Leftist darkies from backward Brazilian boondocks along with the votes of light-skinned shitlibs and cuckservatives in the biggest Brazilian cities:

Lula’s victory had a peculiarity: he won many votes in some of Brazil’s most populated municipalities but also in most of the sparsely populated areas. In the latter, he reached more than 80% of the vote. It was at these two ends that he made the difference.

Bolsonaro, instead, did very well in medium-size cities, as shown by the concentration of blue bubbles in the graph below in districts with between 100,000 and 1 million inhabitants.

 

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Carlos Latuff makes fun of pro-Bolsonaro protesters, who have behaved, in their passionate Latin manner, rather more emotionally than most pro-Trump protesters:

 

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No, Younger People Aren’t Always More Progressive | Novara Media

While ‘generation left’ might exist in some countries, things are more complicated elsewhere around the globe, argues Aaron Bastani.

novaramedia.com

In Brazil, where Lula Da Silva narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the recent presidential election, the youth is shifting right on a host of issues. According to polling conducted in 2016, 54 percent of Brazilians held a high number of conservative opinions, up from 49 percent in 2010. Another poll from 2018 showed that support for the death penalty stood at 58 percent, ten percent higher than 2008. And the age cohort most in favour of capital punishment? Millennials. It’s unsurprising, then, that Bolsonaro appears to have dominated among that very same age cohort in last week’s second round of voting. And while Lula appears to have edged it among those aged 18-24, 44 percent of Gen Z plumping for someone who defends a historic military dictatorship is hardly congruent with ‘Zoomer socialism’.

 

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