Falling Fertility in Latin America
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Petr
Administrator
Colombia's birthrates have started to rapidly go down:
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www.bloomberglinea.com
Colombiaâs Aging Population, Falling Birth Rate Cause Concern
It is expected that, by 2060, two out of three people in Colombia will be retired. What does the aging population mean for the country’s economy?
Colombia’s Aging Population, Falling Birth Rate Cause Concern
It is expected that, by 2060, two out of three people in Colombia will be retired. What does the aging population mean for the country’s economy?
By Daniel Salazar Castellanos (EN)
May 09, 2023 | 11:41 AM
May 09, 2023 | 11:41 AM
Bogotá — Projections foresee Colombia having 10 million senior citizens by 2031, which would mean an increase of 41% compared to 2021 figures, and which in turn will generate challenges for the country in terms of public health and pensions expenditure, according to government estimates.
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Last year, a total of 569,311 births were reported in Colombia, which meant a 7.7% decrease compared to 2021, when 616,914 births were registered.
“This decrease is historic, considering that in the last decade the year-on-year reductions reported range from -2.1% to -1.0%,” according to the country’s statistics agency DANE.
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By 2060 it is expected that for almost every two working-age people there will be one in retirement.
“These forecasts show a big structural change, as in the 1980s the rate of dependence was above eight, and in the 1950s, nine,” the central bank report states.
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Researcher and professor at Universidad Externado, Diva Marcela García, told Bloomberg Línea that this is a trend that has been happening not only in Colombia but worldwide for several decades, and that this is due to multiple factors.
“This can basically be explained by changes in the forms of production. Before, having many children was a strategic tool for survival in rural life and today, with the change in production methods, it no longer necessarily represents those advantages,” he said.
She also referred to the expansion of contraceptive methods and above all the transformations in gender roles, mainly due to the incorporation of women into the labor market and other different scenarios of life related to reproduction and care, which makes it more difficult to have so many children.
Analysts consulted by Bloomberg Línea confirm that Colombia is changing demographically, as in 2000, 32.6% of the population was 15 years old or younger versus 21.1% in 2023.
And on the other side of the spectrum, in that same period the population over 60 years of age increased from 6.8% to 14.2%.
Likewise, the total population increased from 39 million in 2000 to 52 million in 2023, according to figures shared by José Andrés Rueda Montaño, a professor at the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences at the Universidad de América.
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Rueda Montaño says that “the increase in the average age in Colombia means that more and more people are entering the labor market, a situation that calls for a reform that generates the new jobs that the country requires, that contribute to labor formalization, and that increase total contributions to the health and pension systems, thus reducing the pressure on the national budget to grant subsidies in the future.”
“The fact that Colombians live longer will have a price,” which is evidenced by the fact that health spending went from 4.31% of GDP in 2000 to 7.07% in the middle of the pandemic, while in 2019 it was 6.28%”, he added.
He made specific reference to the pension reform proposed by the government of President Gustavo Petro, which proposes a model based on pillars (solidarity, semi-contributory, contributory and voluntary savings).
According to Montaño, “the proposed pillar system requires a growing population, in which the young base supports those who are pensioned”.
However, “the fertility rate in 2022 is 1.85 per woman, which means that we will not be able to replace the people who die with new births. This trend takes us away from population growth”.
Given this scenario, “young Colombians will have an important burden to help pensioners, but unless the demographic trend is reversed, they will have serious problems to finance their pension capital”.
Despite the reduction in fertility, Diva Marcela García points out that the country still has a large part of the population of a young age, Colombians who were born in those generations in which there were still many children, known as the demographic bonus.
This is “the stage in which a country has a larger population of working age people, of adult age. It has a surplus in that population group, and will have less burden of care. We are right at that moment. In many regions of the country there is talk that we are already at the end of this demographic bonus”, she said.
She added that the country is not yet in a process of “imminent aging”, but eventually it will happen because those generations that are in the demographic bonus (at working age) will reach old age together and will have a greater longevity.
Gawn Chippin
Arachnocronymic Metaphoron
Fewer MS13s probably wouldn't be such a bad idea, afterall?
Charles Silvius Haddock
Megaphoron
At this point, much of the world is in a baby bust, with Africa and a few outlier countries still having high TFR. And then of course there are the dissenter religious sects who also have a lot of children, like the Amish and their ilk here. I have noticed too that 1/ the state is persecuting Amish and their cousins more because of their unwillingness to get in line and 2/ the Amish & related sects are dropping the pacifism in response. Now they are carrying firearms, forming associations of mutual protection, etc.
Macrobius
Megaphoron
TFR in my fambly runs in the 3-6 range, across multiple generations except for the one between 'Greatest' and 'GenX/Millennials'. Pray for us. I hope some become monks, and take up the Greater Jihad/Podvig, not the Lesser.
The women, I note, are much more fertile than the men, in recent generations (if you haven't noticed this, you are not paying attention. Deadlier than the male, in the long run). But we have men to protect them.
We were nearly extinct. My first cousin and I are returning us from the brink. In our teenage years, he wrote me a letter about this, and we two made a vow.
Asians totally get this (ask me for the story of my office mate who lived through the Cultural Revolution and went on to get a Ph.D. in physics. I have told this story too many times to retell it here). Let the Sons of Adam arise, and give battle.
In my family (a new one in this country) I am generation 6. Generation 8... happening.
As a fine Canadian woman once sung, we are stardust... and we have to get back to the garden. No, not this one:
That Juenger quote about leading a 100 men in battle comes to mind. Not my office, but ... SOON.
Hint: the 'Club of Rome' isn't a Glee Club.
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Charles Silvius Haddock
Megaphoron
Well pray for me as well. I am in the same situation that your family was before you and your cousin recovered it and I am getting a bit long in the tooth to start a dynasty but there still might be hope. My race is in decline. My parents' generation and the siren song of liberalism did serious damage. Hopefully I can still pull us back from the brink.
Macrobius
Megaphoron
'Say your prayers, Pardner' is an old Western cliche, but a good one, my fren'
I always liked Crichton's message too, come to think of it ... Physics (Nature) will find a way. OK so he put it in the mouth of some Jew Boy in the film.
Both sides get it, though.
But yes, it's the Twighlit Bark in Disney terms... 'The Humans have failed us, Perdita... it's up to us dogs now'.
Walt tried to warn us. Crustaceans, listen up. Dalmatia, btw, is Albion, or Scotland.
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Petr
Administrator
I truly believe that only a righteous remnant will ultimately survive of the White race. See Isaiah 6:
www.biblegateway.com
Bible Gateway passage: Isaiah 6 - King James Version
In the year that king Uzziah died I saw also the LORD sitting upon a throne, high and lifted up, and his train filled the temple. Above it stood the seraphims: each one had six wings; with twain he covered his face, and with twain he covered his feet, and with twain he did fly. And one cried...
11 Then said I, Lord, how long? And he answered, Until the cities be wasted without inhabitant, and the houses without man, and the land be utterly desolate,
12 And the Lord have removed men far away, and there be a great forsaking in the midst of the land.
13 But yet in it shall be a tenth, and it shall return, and shall be eaten: as a teil tree, and as an oak, whose substance is in them, when they cast their leaves: so the holy seed shall be the substance thereof.
Petr
Administrator
Macrobius
Megaphoron
Anglo-Saxon proverbs of our English Speaking peoples:
It's an ill wind, that blows no good.
Also,
What goes about, comes about.
See also: https://whigdev.com/white/index.php?threads/wisdom-of-the-white-race.3200/
Or, if you want the boke:
It's an ill wind, that blows no good.
Also,
What goes about, comes about.
See also: https://whigdev.com/white/index.php?threads/wisdom-of-the-white-race.3200/
Or, if you want the boke: